Supercomputer predicts Champions League winner after chaotic quarter-final first legs
Publish : Friday, 2025-04-11 ( Europe/London )
Opta’s supercomputer rates the chances of the eight remaining teams of winning the Champions League after the quarter-final first legs.
The Champions League quarter-final first legs were merely meant to serve as teasers for the melodrama of next week.
They said the sport was on its knees after Sunday's bore draw in the Manchester Derby amid a rather uninspiring Premier League season, but Europe's premier club competition supplied a timely reminder that it's not so bad after all.
With jeopardy rife, the continent's elite delivered (well, some of them did) under the brightest lights. There were special collective showings worthy of widespread acclaim and an array of outstanding strikes that forced you to type in capitals when posting your reaction on X.
Supercomputer's Champions League favourites after quarter-final first legs
Rank | Team | Likelihood of reaching semi-finals (%) | Likelihood of reaching final (%) | Likelihood of winning Champions League (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 95.7 | 52.9 | 27.8 |
2. | Barcelona | 99.5 | 51.7 | 25.9 |
3. | PSG | 91.5 | 42.9 | 21.9 |
4. | Inter | 82.7 | 41.5 | 19.8 |
5. | Bayern Munich | 17.3 | 6.7 | 3 |
6. | Real Madrid | 4.3 | 2 | 0.9 |
7. | Aston Villa | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
8. | Borussia Dortmund | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 |
Barcelona all but booked their place in the semi-finals on Wednesday night as they claimed a 4-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund, but the La Liga leaders are no longer Opta's favourites to hoist the trophy aloft in Munich.
Arsenal's European pedigree is minimal, but Mikel Arteta's side crossed a new frontier by thumping Real Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates. The 15-time winners were stunned by a pair of superb Declan Rice free-kicks that will find themselves on all-time goals compilations for years to come. Mikel Merino's strike soon after the midfielder's dead-ball masterclass may have put the tie beyond Carlo Ancelotti's men.
Barca are the most likely semi-finalists, with their chances of reaching the last four as high as 99.5% compared to Arsenal's 95.7%. However, the Gunners are more likely to reach the final (52.9% to 51.7%) and win the whole thing (27.8% to 25.9%). The two sides could face off at the Allianz Arena in a repeat of the 2006 final.
Madrid's second-half disaster in north London leaves them with just a 4.3% chance of progressing and a 0.9% chance of winning European title number 16. Interestingly, their odds of lifting the trophy are marginally better than Aston Villa's (0.8%), despite the Villans boasting a better chance of overturning their first leg deficit. Opta rates the likelihood of a second-leg turnaround in the West Midlands next Tuesday at 8.5%.
Paris Saint-Germain produced yet another scintillating display to down English opposition on Wednesday, and they run Barcelona close for the most majestic attacking outfit left in the competition. Les Parisiens have never played with such desire and synergy. They're the third favourites to win the Champions League, with the supercomputer rating their chances at 21.9%.
Inter, meanwhile, are going slightly under the radar. Simone Inzaghi's side are ageing, but they're a brilliant cup team who were beaten finalists two years ago. The Nerazzurri combine vintage Italian defending with 'relationist' principles in possession, which help them overwhelm opponents methodically.
Their 2-1 win at Bayern Munich on Tuesday leaves them with an 82.7% chance of making the semi-finals, but they're the least likely of their four first-leg victors to win the competition (19.8% chance). Do not sleep on them.
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