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Supercomputer predicts Champions League winner after thrilling semi-final first legs

Publish :  Friday, 2025-05-02 ( Europe/London )

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Opta’s supercomputer has predicted which of the four remaining sides is most likely to win the Champions League after the semi-final first legs.

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Paris Saint-Germain have been billed as heavy favourites to lift this season's Champions League title with just two games before the trophy is dished out.

Well, that was a decent midweek of Champions League knockout action, wasn't it?

Two blockbuster semi-final first legs captured the attention of audiences across the world as Arsenal hosted Paris Saint-Germain and Inter visited Barcelona. Both duels showcased Europe's best and brightest - albeit in stylistically different ways - and set up scorching second legs next week.


Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Champions League winner

Ousmane Dembele, Nuno Mendes
PSG are now favourites for the trophy / Michael Steele/GettyImages

PSG oozed class during their 1-0 victory at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday. The Parisians purred for much of the encounter and a dominant opening half-hour saw them take control of the tie via Ousmane Dembele's exquisite strike. Unsurprisingly, their performance in north London has seen them earn the tag of competition favourites, with Opta giving them a 41.9% chance of winning the trophy.

Their semi-final opponents, Arsenal, are now considered the competition outsiders. Prior to Tuesday's affair they were given a 31.3% chance of winning the Champions League for the first time, but that has now slipped to just 12.1%. The Gunners must overcome a one-goal deficit during their second leg in the French capital just to reach the final, where they would then face Inter or Barcelona.

Wednesday's semi-final was a more traditional barnstormer. Inter twice led during their 3-3 draw in Catalonia and despite surrendering their advantages, they will be content with the outcome. They have home advantage for the second leg and San Siro will be deafening for La Blaugrana's visit. The Italians, who haven't won the competition since 2009/10, have a 20.2% chance of ending their European drought.

Barcelona might not boast the sternest defence in the competition but they do possess the most devastating forward line. Lamine Yamal took centre stage during the first leg but Raphinha also showcased his genius. They will have no reservations heading to Milan and know they can outscore anybody on their day - which comes around fairly often. They are deemed favourites to progress but have just a 25.8% chance of glory.

Club

Chances of winning the Champions League

PSG

41.9%

Barcelona

25.8%

Inter

20.2%

Arsenal

12.1%


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